South African Scientists Seek New Climate Models

A group of scientists at Wits University in South Africa are challenging current climate models, arguing they are too narrow to address the scale of the climate crisis. The researchers published a paper in One Earth on May 15, asserting that existing global climate scenarios are built on flawed assumptions. These models prioritize incremental change and rely on Western perspectives, failing to account for the complex needs of the Global South, particularly Africa.

Professor Laura Pereira explains that current models often treat Africa as a “black hole” in climate modeling, smoothing over unique regional data due to the continent’s lack of its own Integrated Assessment Model. Building such a model requires substantial funding and expertise, creating a gap in localized climate analysis. The team hopes to address this through their work with the Future Ecosystems for Africa program, pending funding renewal.

The scientists propose “Integrated Transformative Scenarios” that center justice, diverse knowledge, and systemic change. These new models would integrate equity, biodiversity, and local voices, shifting the focus from forecasting problems to mapping desirable solutions. The work continues as the team seeks to establish a Global South-led scenarios secretariat.