Japan’s 1830s Famine Linked to Monthly Climate Shifts

Why this is here: In the summer of 1836, solar radiation in central Japan was about 10% below normal, which coincided with a rapid increase in rice prices.

Mika Ichino, formerly at the Research Organization of Information and Systems in Tokyo, Japan, and colleagues analyzed 18 historical diaries to connect weather patterns with rice prices during the Tenpō Famine of the 1830s. The team reconstructed monthly solar radiation from 1821 to 1850 and compared it to rice prices in Osaka. This method moves beyond annual data, offering a more detailed view of seasonal climate impacts.

Researchers used the Historical Weather Database and established a baseline using solar patterns from 1981 to 2010. They then estimated solar radiation from descriptions within the diaries. In July and August of 1836, central Japan experienced roughly 10% less solar radiation than normal, coinciding with rapidly rising rice prices.

However, the study acknowledges that rice prices are affected by factors beyond climate, including trade and government actions. Further research will expand this framework to other regions and time periods to better understand long-term climate responses.