Indonesia’s Glaciers May Vanish by 2027

Donaldi Permana and his team at Indonesia’s meteorological agency now predict Indonesia will soon lose its remaining glaciers near Puncak Jaya, Papua. Over the last 44 years, the peak has lost 97% of its ice and four glaciers. The two remaining, Carstensz and East Northwall Firn, are shrinking rapidly—from roughly 3,500 football fields in 1850 to just 40 today.

El Niño events exacerbate melting by bringing warmer, drier conditions to Papua. During the 2015–16 El Niño, the vertical thinning rate of the glaciers increased to 5.3 meters per year. Researchers used a 32-meter ice core to analyze climate variability over the past half-century and model future ice loss.

Mike Kaplan, a geologist at Columbia Climate School, explains that even if greenhouse gas emissions stabilized, warming will continue for years. The loss of these glaciers carries cultural weight for Indigenous Papuan communities who consider the summit a sacred space. While tropical glaciers disappear first due to their size, they serve as a warning for glaciers worldwide.