Scientists Seek Broader Climate Futures

Professor Laura Pereira from the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa and colleagues are urging a shift in how scientists model future climate and biodiversity challenges. They argue current models rely too heavily on existing systems, limiting exploration of necessary transformations. These models often prioritize incremental change instead of addressing root causes of global crises.

The researchers published their findings in One Earth, noting that present scenarios rarely account for interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and inequality. The Earth Commission, a group of 23 scientists including four from Africa, convened by Future Earth, seeks to define planetary boundaries for a thriving future.

Currently, Africa lacks its own Integrated Assessment Model—a tool used for complex simulations—and funding renewal is needed to address this gap. The team hopes to develop more inclusive scenarios, co-created with Indigenous Peoples and local communities, to better reflect diverse values and knowledge. Work continues on alternative economic thinking and models that prioritize equity alongside sustainability.